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SkyWatch Weather India๐ฎ๐ณ
SouthWest Monsoon 2024 Forecast for Gujarat
Date: 24 April 2024
Subject: Monsoon 2024 forecast for Gujarat State.
Subdivisions – Major Cities
Saurashtra (SA) – Rajkot, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Junagad, Amreli, Bhavnagar
Kutch (KU) – Bhuj, Gandhidham
South Gujarat (SG) – Vapi, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Bharuch, Ankleshwar
North Gujarat (NG) – Palanpur
East Central Gujarat (ECG) – Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Godhra, Dahod, Anand, Gandhinagar
Onset- Withdrawal Forecast
+/- 2 days
Saurashtra:
Monsoon will enter S/SE areas of Saurashtra by 15 June and will cover entire region by 17 June.
Monsoon withdrawal will be delayed in the region. Monsoon is likely to withdraw from the region by 5 October.
Kutch:
Monsoon will make onset in kutch by 24 June.
Monsoon withdrawal is likely in Northern Kutch by 25 September and from entire region by 28 September.
South Gujarat:
Monsoon is likely to make a strong onset in the region by 13 June.
Monsoon withdrawal in South Gujarat is likely by 10 October.
North Gujarat
Monsoon will make onset in this region by 20 June.
Monsoon withdrawal is likely to commence by 28 September.
East – Central Gujarat
Monsoon will make onset in this region by 15 June.
Monsoon withdrawal is likely by 7 October.
Monsoon Forecast
Saurashtra
Coastal Saurashtra being near to sea, it will be supported by positive IOD event and is likely to get Above Normal Rains.
Meanwhile interior Saurashtra like Rajkot city and other areas will also get Above Normal Rains. Many factors like LPA, IOD, La Nina (in september 2024), Vortex will ensure good rains in saurashtra.
July is likely to be wettest month.
Expected Volume: 950mm
Above Normal: +233mm from normal 717mm
Kutch
Kutch region is also likely to see Above Average rains this season especially due to IOD event and being surrounded by Gulf of Kutch and Arabian Sea.
July is likely to be wettest month.
Expected Volume: 650mm
Above Normal: +194mm from normal
South Gujarat
Being near to coast, this region will also be favoured by IOD and Above Normal rains will be seen. See above for the cities in this region.
July will be wettest month.
Expected Volume: 2200mm
Above Normal: +724 mm from normal
North Gujarat
Bit less impact of IOD will be seen in this region. Being near to mountain regions of Mount Abu and other valleys, this area will get good rains. Slightly Above Normal rains likely.
Expected Volume: 850mm
Above Normal: +130mm from normal
East-Central Gujarat
Being surrounded with Gulf of Khambhat and Arabian sea, this region and also eastern gujarat will be highly favoured from IOD and monsoon LPA. Above average rains likely in this region. See above for list of some major cities.
Expected Volume: 1000mm
Above Normal: +194mm from normal
Study, Analysis and Forecasted by
SkyWatch Weather India๐ฎ๐ณ
