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Monsoon 2024 forecast for Gujarat State. SkyWatch Weather India๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ

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SkyWatch Weather India๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ


SouthWest Monsoon 2024 Forecast for Gujarat

Date: 24 April 2024

Subject: Monsoon 2024 forecast for Gujarat State.

Subdivisions – Major Cities

Saurashtra (SA) – Rajkot, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Junagad, Amreli, Bhavnagar

Kutch (KU) – Bhuj, Gandhidham

South Gujarat (SG) – Vapi, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Bharuch, Ankleshwar

North Gujarat (NG) – Palanpur

East Central Gujarat (ECG) – Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Godhra, Dahod, Anand, Gandhinagar

Onset- Withdrawal Forecast

+/- 2 days

Saurashtra:

Monsoon will enter S/SE areas of Saurashtra by 15 June and will cover entire region by 17 June.

Monsoon withdrawal will be delayed in the region. Monsoon is likely to withdraw from the region by 5 October.

Kutch:

Monsoon will make onset in kutch by 24 June.

Monsoon withdrawal is likely in Northern Kutch by 25 September and from entire region by 28 September.

South Gujarat:

Monsoon is likely to make a strong onset in the region by 13 June.

Monsoon withdrawal in South Gujarat is likely by 10 October.

North Gujarat

Monsoon will make onset in this region by 20 June.

Monsoon withdrawal is likely to commence by 28 September.

East – Central Gujarat

Monsoon will make onset in this region by 15 June.

Monsoon withdrawal is likely by 7 October.

Monsoon Forecast

Saurashtra

Coastal Saurashtra being near to sea, it will be supported by positive IOD event and is likely to get Above Normal Rains.

Meanwhile interior Saurashtra like Rajkot city and other areas will also get Above Normal Rains. Many factors like LPA, IOD, La Nina (in september 2024), Vortex will ensure good rains in saurashtra.

July is likely to be wettest month.

Expected Volume: 950mm

Above Normal: +233mm from normal 717mm

Kutch

Kutch region is also likely to see Above Average rains this season especially due to IOD event and being surrounded by Gulf of Kutch and Arabian Sea.

July is likely to be wettest month.

Expected Volume: 650mm

Above Normal: +194mm from normal

South Gujarat

Being near to coast, this region will also be favoured by IOD and Above Normal rains will be seen. See above for the cities in this region.

July will be wettest month.

Expected Volume: 2200mm

Above Normal: +724 mm from normal

North Gujarat

Bit less impact of IOD will be seen in this region. Being near to mountain regions of Mount Abu and other valleys, this area will get good rains. Slightly Above Normal rains likely.

Expected Volume: 850mm

Above Normal: +130mm from normal

East-Central Gujarat

Being surrounded with Gulf of Khambhat and Arabian sea, this region and also eastern gujarat will be highly favoured from IOD and monsoon LPA. Above average rains likely in this region. See above for list of some major cities.

Expected Volume: 1000mm

Above Normal: +194mm from normal

Study, Analysis and Forecasted by

SkyWatch Weather India๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ

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